Dengue is a climate sensitive mosquito borne viral disease

Dengue is a climate sensitive mosquito-borne viral disease that is generally found in the tropics and subtropics (Murray et al., 2013). According to the World Health Organization (World Health Organization (WHO), 2012) and recent assessment on global burden of diseases (GBD2013) (Murray et al., 2015), dengue is now the most important arboviral disease worldwide that has the largest increases among infectious diseases over the last 20years. The recent estimates indicate as many as 390 million infections per year (Bhatt et al., 2013). Aedes mosquitoes are the pi3k inhibitors for the four dengue virus serotypes: DENV 1–4 (World Health Organization (WHO), 2012). Ae. aegypti is the primary vector associated with most major dengue epidemics, while Ae. albopictus, the secondary vector, is less efficient (Lambrechts et al., 2010). Of major concern is the geographic expansion of dengue viruses and vectors to new areas (Lambrechts et al., 2010; World Health Organization (WHO), 2009). Reasons for the expansion are complex; however, main contributing factors include the introduction of Aedes mosquitoes by shipping (Reiter, 1998) and increasingly importation of the dengue virus via viremic travelers (Leder et al., 2013; Wilder-Smith and Gubler, 2008). Subsequent establishment of vectors after introduction can only be possible if suitable climate and ecological conditions exist. Having established populations of Aedes vectors and the conducive climatic conditions, in early autumn 2014, Tokyo, Japan recorded the first epidemic of dengue since the Second World War (Quam et al., 2016). Europe is also suitable for the establishment and re-establishment of Aedes mosquitoes as evidenced by the following: Aedes aegypti was historically present in many European countries including UK and France (1919), Spain (up to 1953), Portugal (up to 1956), and recently the Netherlands, Russia and Georgia (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), 2014; European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), 2015). In Madeira, Portugal, Ae. aegypti was documented until 1977–79 and then was re-established in 2004 and 2005. Madeira experienced its first major dengue outbreak in 2012/2013, with more than 2000 cases (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2012; Wilder-Smith et al., 2014a). The rapidly expanding range of Ae. albopictus in Europe (Lambrechts et al., 2010; European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), 2013) resulted in the first known autochthonous dengue cases in southern France and Croatia in 2010 (La Ruche et al., 2010) in addition to an importation Ae. albopictus driven outbreak of chikungunya in 2007 in Italy (Rezza et al., 2007). There are concerns that Ae. aegypti could be introduced from Russia and Georgia (Abkhazia) to Western Europe via air or sea traffic, and to Eastern Europe via road and sea traffic, in addition to the vectors\' projected establishment in Southern Europe (Rogers, 2015). Current surveillance indicates that Aedes vectors have been introduced or established in much of the Mediterranean coast and as far north as the Netherlands (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), 2015). Therefore, it is important to assess the dengue epidemic potential (DEP) in Europe. A few studies have projected dengue risk and epidemic potential for Europe. They have used either statistical models (Bouzid et al., 2014; Rogers et al., 2014) or vectorial capacity (Liu-Helmersson et al., 2014; Patz et al., 1998), a Mathematical model, however, with limited range either geographically, temporally or in terms of climate scenarios. In this study, we intend to estimate DEP for Europe using vectorial capacity with increased range of climate scenarios and temporal resolution. Although DEP depends on many factors, this study focuses on the effect of temperature – past, present, and future – on vectorial capacity of Aedes mosquitoes.